有夢固然最美,但夢醒時分的悵然,卻是令人不堪。人民幣離岸中心的建立,是人民幣國際化的重要環節,因此,中國官方是否支持,攸關成敗勝負。台灣要成為人民幣離岸中心,在主客觀條件上都言之過早,套句披頭四的著名歌曲,這就好像是“ to dream the impossible dream.”
在個別條件上,發展人民幣離岸中心,近的要跟香港一較短長,遠的要與倫敦展開對決。其中香港本身就已經是一個成熟的國際金融中心,並且早在7年多以前,就已經因為中國希望透過離岸市場,推動人民幣跨境使用,以逐步推動其國際化,而在中國支持下開始發展人民幣離岸中心;倫敦則是全球最大的金融中心,占全球外匯市場量的4成,若依去年9月倫敦金融城(City of London) 公佈的全球金融中心指標(The Global Financial Centers Index)排名,倫敦、紐約、香港、新加坡分列前4名,台北則排在第19名。
對上面做一些補充。感謝財經博客“Zero Hedge”﹐它引用了《南華早報》(South China Morning Post)最近的一篇文章﹐文章當中﹐中國社會科學院一位經濟學家報告說﹐根據電表讀數計算﹐中國共有6,450萬套城市公寓和別墅空置。
Zero Hedge宣稱﹐這個數字是美國約1,200萬套空置住房(包括開發商囤積的“影子存量”(shadow inventory))的五倍。Zero Hedge說﹐換句話說﹐中國正在隱蔽地“資助並造就”一個樓市泡沫﹐而這個泡沫至少相當於美國最近泡沫的五倍﹔美國這個泡沫的破滅﹐將其樓市和整個經濟都擊得粉碎。
"You taught me that evil is just a word ; under the skin, it's simple pain"
"For you, mercy was victory -- you sacrificed, you endured, and when given the chance...you forgave. Always."
"Mother believed this world was irredeemable...but she was wrong. Father, we are Utopia, you and I."
"And in forgiving, we left the door open for her."
"The Rapture dream is over, but in waking, I am reborn. This world is not ready for me, yet here I am. It would be so easy to misjudge them. You are my conscience, Father.... and I need you to guide me.'"
"You will always be with me now, Father...your memories, your drives. And when I need you, you'll be there on my shoulder, whispering"
"If Utopia is not a place - - but a people, then we must choose carefully. For the world is about to change - - and in our story, Rapture was just the beginning"
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